Абстрактный

World Men's 200m performance development trend applied research based on residual correction gm (1, 1) model

Jiangtian Zhu

For competitive sports performance prediction problems possessed “poor data information”, “small sample” and “dynamics” as well as other traditional statistical methods hard problems, grey model’s application will more effective and accurate solve the problems. But meanwhile grey model’s application in competitive sports prediction problems, it also appears lots of problems; traditional GM (1, 1) model cannot arrive at corresponding accuracy in lots of problems’ prediction. The paper researches on residual correction-based GM (1, 1) grey model application in competitive sports. Take world men’s 200m best performance from 2003 to 2013 as sample, it carries out residual correctionGM(1, 1) greymodel’s modeling, its prediction accuracy arrives at first grade accuracy, and makes prediction and models onworldmen’s 200m best performance in 2014 with solved model, it solves its prediction performance is 20.59s