Абстрактный

Study on dynamic effect mechanism between service trade fluctuation and the growth of service industry

Ma Qiang

This study explains the theory of the service trade and service industry economic growth briefly, and makes relevant reasonable assumptions, and applies econometric methods to carry out case study. The selected data includes economic growth data of service industry and import and export data of service trade, and the time node is from 1985 to 2006. The econometric methods used include co-integration theory and Granger causality relationship test, and the results of co-integration analysis shows that the variable value of each group is non-stationary, but they are all a single whole sequence. The results of cointegration test show that there has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables. From a long-term perspective, encouraging measures should be taken for the export of service trade, thus widening the economic growth of the service industry. The results of Granger causality test show that, from the policy we should give full play to the role of service trade export, and encourage imports to promote the economic growth of the service industry; For the economic growth of service industry, service trade import sometimes has lag effect, focusing on the future, the policy formulation shall be prudent. The import and export of service trade influence each other, and one-way causal relationship exists between the two in different period. Finally, this study puts forward the development path of service trade and service economy, and the cooperation of three can improve current situation of ChinaÂ’s service trade, promoting the international competitiveness in the end.