Абстрактный

Grey forecasting model in the application of world women's pentathlon performance prediction research

Su Jin, Tiecheng Guo

Grey system theory is a kind of ideal method of dealing with the dynamic development problem of small sample, and the problems of competitive sports has a "poor information", "small sample" and "dynamic", and made the grey system in their studies than traditional more advantages of probability statistics and fuzzy mathematics, grey mathematics application in performance prediction and analysis of competitive sports more and more widely. This paper USES the literature material law, the statistics between 2001 ~ 2013 year calendar pentathlon world woman the best results. Woman pentathlon world best results, this paper deals with the GM(1, 1) grey model and gray model GM(1, 6). Based on GM(1, 1) model and compare the accuracy of the GM(1, 6) model and GM(1, N) model is studied in the application of sports competition, illustrates the method of GM(1, N) model in the application of multiple projects sports competition, select the GM(1, 6) prediction model for the application of the grey model to predict performance in competitive sports. At the same time, the application of gray forecast model GM(1, 6) has been established for screening, and ultimately determine to sample data from 2005 to 2013 in modeling, determine the world women's pentathlon performance prediction model.