Абстрактный

Epidemic modeling using data from the 2001-2002 measles outbreak in Venezuela

Ra�?�?�?�?�?�?�?ºl Isea, Karl E.Lonngren

We present a methodology that is based on a well-known epidemiological model (the SIR model) and which will lead to a critical parameter that can be later employed to analyze the actual occurrence of an epidemic. The parameter can be used to specify whether an epidemic is currently in existence and that a mass vaccination campaign should be commenced or if itwere just amisinterpretation of the data and amass vaccination campaign would not be justified. As a confirming example, weekly data from the outbreak of measles that occurred in Venezuela during 2001-2002 is examined using this technique.